The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don't by Nate Silver

Author:Nate Silver [Silver, Nate]
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9781594204111
Publisher: Penguin Press HC, The
Published: 2012-09-27T00:00:00+00:00

In practice, poker players might differ a lot in how they assess the probabilities for his hand. Skilled poker players are probably better than 99.9 percent of the population at making reasonably good probabilistic judgments under uncertainty. In fact, I don’t know of a single game or intellectual exercise that better refines these skills. However, when I posted this hand on Two Plus Two, an online forum for professional poker players, assessments ranged from that we were nearly certain to have the best hand to that we were nearly certain to be beat.6 My view is that both these assessments are overconfident. We should not proceed as though we don’t know anything about the opponent’s hand, but in general our predictive errors come in thinking that there is more certainty in the world than there really is. In this case, seeking to put the opponent on an exact hand would imply a fold, while a fuller assessment of the probabilities—coupled with the favorable adds from the pot—means that we should call instead.

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